In our previous issue, we began our exploration of the forecasts in the Institute for the Future's (IFTF) report "Lighting Up the Future for Children," focusing on scenarios within the "Support Community Needs" quadrant. These scenarios addressed immediate, pressing community issues with some level of community input, but decisions were still largely made by institutional leaders.

Today, we shift our focus to the "Long-term / Community Involved" quadrant. This area emphasizes rebuilding "the health and education systems and physical infrastructure" on which children and families depend, with a view towards the next decade and beyond. In this issue, we'll explore two forecasts that exemplify this long-term, community-involved approach:

• "Anticipate Climate Migration" - This scenario envisions a 2035 where proactive measures are taken to manage large-scale community relocations due to climate change.

• "Fortify Public Institutions" - This forecast describes a 2035 where stakeholders work to revitalize public institutions and infrastructure after decades of under-investment.

These forecasts shift our attention to a different dimension of the polarities introduced in our previous issue. While our last exploration focused on short-term thinking, we now turn to the long-term planning pole. However, we maintain our position on the spectrum of community involvement, still examining scenarios where institutional leadership plays a significant role, albeit with community input.

This shift allows us to see how embracing longer time horizons might change our approach to addressing complex, systemic challenges while engaging communities in the process. As we examine these possibilities in turn, consider how they might coexist, influence each other, and shape a future where both anticipatory action and institutional strengthening play crucial roles.

Scenarios

Anticipate Climate Migration

By 2035, climate change has forced large-scale, anticipatory community relocation. Stakeholders work proactively to prepare at-risk communities for their move to safer areas. They also collaborate with governments and NGOs to ensure relocated communities have access to essential services, rights, and support for rebuilding their lives. Climate-risk models and analytics are used to identify suitable resettlement sites, with investments flowing into these areas to develop infrastructure and integrate new residents. While technology sometimes overshadows local knowledge, the overall goal is to protect and nurture threatened communities.

Signs of this Future in the Present

•  The Receiver Places project by the PLACE Initiative identifies cities and counties that have the potential to become climate safe havens. The project also outlines strategies that will enable these place to prepare for the influx of climate migrants.

• Rice University scholars propose a “Sister Cities for the Anthropocene” network to facilitate the exchange of experiences, ideas, and best practices, potentially including strategies for managing climate migration. Such a network would help establish "broad-based, long-term" partnerships and community-to-community collaboration.

• Climate Alpha, a Singapore-based startup, has developed an AI-powered platform to analyze the impact of climate change on real estate. The platform helps identify areas that may become less habitable due to climate change, potentially driving migration. It also highlights "Climate Oases," areas that may attract climate migrants. And it considers not just climate data, but also factors like the “reliability of energy grids and economic momentum” to provide a more a comprehensive view of potential migration drivers.

• As sea level rise erodes its beaches and threatens some of its buildings, Kahana Sunset is believed to be the first condo association in Hawaii to prepare a managed retreat plan.

Fortify Public Institutions

In 2035, after decades of underinvestment, stakeholders are actively working to revitalize public institutions and infrastructure and to address gaps in health, education, and social safety nets caused by various factors including climate change, racial inequalities, changing demographics, and the transformative impact of AI and robotics on jobs. Investments are being made in struggling public hospitals, particularly in rural areas. Systems-change initiatives drive awareness and progress on equity issues. However, the focus on formal institutions sometimes leaves grassroots and community-led initiatives under-resourced, creating a tension between top-down and bottom-up approaches to community support.

Signs of this Future in the Present

• The launch of the American Climate Corps (ACC) in 2024 demonstrates a proactive approach to building resilience at both local and national levels. By developing a workforce skilled in climate adaptation and focusing on collaboration between federal, state, and local authorities, the ACC could strengthen the capacity of public institutions to manage future climate-driven challenges.

• The Washington Cares Fund is a public long-term care insurance program for state residents. Beginning in 2026, when they need care contributors can access their earned benefits - up to $36,500 per year. By involving multiple state agencies and establishing a dedicated commission for ongoing refinement, the initiative demonstrates a coordinated institutional approach to complex issues.

  

  Artifact from the Future: “Public Policy Experimentation Labs -  Where data, AI, and human insight converge to shape tomorrow's policies” (Image created with DALL-E-3)

Food for thought

The "Anticipate Climate Migration" scenario presents a world where large-scale, anticipatory community relocation due to climate change is a reality. This future demands proactive planning, cross-sector collaboration, and the ability to balance technological solutions with community needs, while addressing the emotional, psychological, and financial challenges faced by migrant families and the resource constraints of receiving schools. How can we, as educators, prepare for this complex future, supporting both the families who are relocating and the communities receiving them?

• Classroom level: How can we create an inclusive environment for migrant students while maintaining quality education for existing students? What curriculum adjustments can address the emotional and psychological impacts of displacement?

• School level: How might we expand develop programs to help migrant families build social connections, while managing potential resource constraints? What flexible staffing and infrastructure models could we develop to adapt to fluctuating student populations? For schools in areas people are leaving, how can we support students and families – and staff – through the transition process?

• District level: How can we establish policies and programs to support the needs of migrant families while addressing the financial and infrastructural challenges of receiving schools? What strategies can ensure equitable resource distribution across schools differently impacted by climate migration? How can districts in areas experiencing outmigration collaborate with receiving districts to ensure continuity of support for relocating families? What professional development can equip educators in both sending and receiving areas to support students through the migration process?

The "Fortify Public Institutions" scenario presents a world where stakeholders are actively working to revitalize public institutions and infrastructure, addressing gaps in health, education, and social safety nets. This future demands not just academic knowledge, but also resilience, adaptability, and a deep understanding of social systems. How can we, as educators, begin to cultivate these skills and mindsets today?

• Classroom level: How can we integrate lessons on civic engagement, systems thinking, and climate resilience into our curriculum, regardless of subject area? What project-based learning experiences could we create that simulate the challenges faced by public institutions in addressing societal issues?

• School level: How might we redesign our school's infrastructure and policies to model sustainability and inclusivity? What partnerships could we form with local government agencies or community organizations to create "mini-public institutions" within our schools?

• District level: How can we establish strategic partnerships with various public institutions (e.g., healthcare systems, social services, environmental agencies) to create a more integrated approach to education and community support? How might we redesign our district's long-term planning process to align with and support the revitalization of public institutions? How can we develop leadership programs that prepare administrators to navigate the intersection of education and other public sectors?

Looking ahead

In Part 4 of our “Lighting Up the Future for Children” series, we’ll focus on the quadrant defined by short-term community- determined forecasts and ways we might “set the stage for effective, culturally relevant responses to local challenges and allow communities to lead in the execution of solutions and responses that align with their values and priorities.”