In our May 24 issue, we began our exploration of the Institute for the Future's (IFTF) report "Lighting Up the Future for Children." This report outlines three extreme forces shaping the future our children will inherit: systemic othering, the pervasive influence of AI, and the persistent effects of climate change 

The report also identifies two critical uncertainties. One is the time-frame that people apply in their decision-making and use to think about the impacts of their actions: Will leaders and communities be thinking about the next one or two years (short-term) or over the next 10-plus years (long-term)?

The second relates to how the community participates in strategic decision-making: Will leaders and institutions consult with the community or will community members “envision their future, design pathways, and implement solutions that best suit their needs? In other words, will power be exercised from the top down or the bottom up?

The answer to both questions, we believe, is “Yes.” We see these uncertainties as polarities, two interdependent, equally valid, but seemingly opposite, values or approaches. Polarity thinking invites us to move beyond simple either/or decisions and embrace a both/and approach when dealing with complex challenges. The goal is not to choose one over the other, but to leverage the strengths of both while mitigating their weaknesses.

In the context of its report, IFTF has used these uncertainties to create four distinct quadrants that define the boundaries of possible futures:

• Short-term / Community Involved, which focuses on “the evolving challenges and disparities for which many children, families, and communities need immediate support.

• Long-term / Community Involved, which focuses on rebuilding “the health and education systems and physical infrastructure” on which children and families depend.

• Short-term / Community Determined, which focuses on providing the tools, resources, and platforms that empower communities to respond to challenges with solutions that reflect their values and priorities.

• Long-term / Community Determined, which prioritizes honoring the expertise and experience of local leaders and residents in shaping their futures and invest in their ideas for audacious reinvention of systems and supports.

In this newsletter, we'll explore the "Support Community Needs" quadrant. In this quadrant, IFTF presents three scenarios that explores a future where we're addressing immediate, pressing community issues with some level of community input, but decisions are still largely made by institutional leaders. While we will look at each scenario in turn, we should remember that they are not mutually exclusive. It is likely that elements of these possibilities will coexist and co-evolve over the next decade.

After we describe each of these possibilities and some of the signals that suggest them, we’ll share a few questions that we hope provoke you to reflect on how we might use these future possibilities to rethink our work as educators and advocates for families and children.

Scenarios

Band-Aid Broken Systems

This forecast envisions a 2035 where “communities, institutions, and governments are overwhelmed by cascading crises, including climate disasters, health epidemics, economic inequity, and social unrest.” Despite intentions to transform unjust systems, short-term relief efforts dominate. Mental health support has improved and some communities “have created mutual aid networks and grassroots care solutions.” However, “well-intentioned stakeholders are spread thin, “band-aiding” rather than more permanently addressing urgent needs.”

Signs of this Future in the Present

• As heat waves creep north, schools that previously did not need air conditioning bake. This issue has led to school closures, early dismissals, disruptions to learning, and health risks for students and staff across multiple school districts, particularly in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. The Center for Climate Integrity estimates that over 13,700 public schools that did not require air conditioning in 1970 now need it today, with an estimated cost exceeding $40 billion to install cooling systems.

• The Massachusetts House unanimously passed a sweeping maternal health bill to address the maternal health crisis, particularly the disproportionate impact on women of color, by expanding access to alternative birthing options, mental health support, and data collection measures.

• The Palo Alto Student Climate Coalition is spearheading a collaborative effort involving city officials and community partners to gather granular data on urban heat islands across the region. This initiative stems from growing concerns over the disproportionate impact of extreme heat on disadvantaged communities.

Triage Climate Events

By 2035, climate-related disasters have become “persistent and overwhelming.” Extreme weather events regularly devastate communities and undermine food systems. A new professional workforce specializing in disaster response emerges, but the “endless cycle of climate triage consumes institutional resources originally intended for deeper societal renewal.” Many climate-displaced families relocate, but struggle to find stability. Best practices for refugee resettlement facilitate their moves, but stakeholders are fatigued and burned out “by perpetual catastrophes and crisis management.”

Signs of this Future in the Present

•  The UAE develops an AI tool to identify areas most vulnerable to extreme weather. By providing local authorities with real-time situational awareness and predictive capabilities, the tool can inform effective disaster management, urban planning, and infrastructure development decisions.

• In 2022, more than three million adults were forced to evacuate their homes in the U.S. because of hurricanes, floods and other disasters.

• The New Orleans Resilience Corps, launched as a pilot program in 2020, employs residents to support the city's resilience efforts during extreme weather and other crises. The corps members are trained to provide essential services, deliver aid, and assist vulnerable populations before, during, and after disasters. San Jose, CA and Portland, ME have established their own resilience corps.

Build Inclusive AI Labs

This 2035 scenario sees the emergence of community AI labs worldwide, “led by developers, designers, and ethicists from diverse backgrounds.” These labs are informed by community members and address local needs. “Some support workers’ rights, others enable youth creativity, and others optimize local food production and distribution systems.” These labs represent progress in “redirecting emerging technologies away from profit and control and toward justice and liberation.” However, historically excluded communities still struggle for agency.

Signs of this Future in the Present

• By incorporating AI into its operating systems, Apple may be making AI more approachable for a wider range of users, including those who might be less tech-savvy. Moreover, Apple's emphasis on privacy with the "Private Cloud Compute" system suggests an attempt to make AI more trustworthy and secure for all users. However, while Apple has a large user base, its products are often premium-priced, which could limit access for lower-income users.

• The Surgeon General's call for warning labels on social media platforms article highlights growing awareness of the unintended negative consequences of widely adopted technologies and sets a precedent for regulating digital technologies based on their potential harm. These public health approaches could be extended to AI systems in the future.

• Mozilla researchers propose to replace the typical confusing and one-sided "terms of service" agreements for AI applications with new "terms-we-serve-with" agreements that are clear and easy for non-experts to understand; give users more transparency into how the AI works; allow people to report issues or contest potential harms, and give communities more voice and input in shaping the rules.

Food for thought

Both the “Band-Aid Broken Systems” and “Triage Climate Events” scenarios invite us to consider a future where persistent crises—be they climate disasters, health emergencies, economic upheavals, or social unrest—become the norm rather than the exception. In these scenarios, our educational institutions may frequently double as emergency response centers, and our roles may expand far beyond traditional teaching. We'll likely be serving an increasingly unstable student population, including displaced families and those grappling with ongoing traumas. Our challenge will be to maintain educational quality and continuity while simultaneously addressing immediate community needs and avoiding systemic burnout.

These possibilities suggest that we will have to re-imagine education from the ground up. How can we create learning environments that are not just crisis-resistant, but crisis-adaptive? How might we integrate crucial life skills—like disaster preparedness, community organizing, and emotional resilience—into our core curriculum? And how can we structure our educational systems to be more flexible, allowing for rapid shifts between "normal" operations and emergency response modes?

• Classroom level: How can we design a curriculum that seamlessly blends traditional academic subjects with crisis management skills, adaptability, and community support? What would a truly resilient classroom look like, and how would it function during both periods of stability and upheaval?

• School level: How might we transform our schools into multipurpose community resilience hubs without compromising their primary educational mission? What new skills and roles will educators and staff need to develop to effectively serve in this expanded capacity?

• District level: How can we reimagine district policies, resource allocation, and organizational structures to create an educational system capable of withstanding and responding to persistent crises? What partnerships and collaborations should we prioritize now to prepare for this challenging future?

The "Build Inclusive AI Labs" scenario presents a world where augmented intelligence is developed with community input and focused on local needs. This future demands not just technical skills, but also ethical reasoning, community engagement, and the ability to bridge diverse perspectives. How can we, as educators, begin to cultivate these skills and mindsets today? How might we reimagine our educational approach to prepare students for a world where augmented intelligence and community needs are deeply intertwined?

• Classroom level: How can we integrate AI ethics and community-centered design thinking into our curriculum, regardless of subject area? What project-based learning experiences could we create that simulate the challenges and decisions faced in community AI labs?

• School level: How might we redesign our school's technology infrastructure and policies to model inclusive and ethical AI use? What partnerships could we form with local tech companies or community organizations to create "mini-AI labs" within our schools?

• District level: How can we reimagine district-wide assessment and accountability measures to value skills like ethical reasoning, community engagement, and interdisciplinary problem-solving? What professional development programs could we implement to prepare teachers for a future where AI and community needs are central to education?

Looking ahead

In Part 4 of our “Lighting Up the Future for Children” series, we’ll focus on “the quadrant defined by longer-term community-involved, and forecasts that imagine how we might build transformative, “essential structures and partnerships that will support children and family over decades, even generations.