Childhood poverty surges, disaster resilience zones are a thing now, and inter-generational justice heats up

In this issue, we're trying something new - exploring the future through three distinct signals: one that worries us, one showing signs of progress, and one that gives us hope.

This approach is inspired by the "Three Horizons" model, initially conceived by Bill Sharpe, Anthony Hodgson, and their colleagues at the International Futures Forum.  We find that this format sparks thought-provoking discussions about our worries and aspirations, and helps us imagine how we might work strategically to build the future we prefer. We hope that recreating it here will provide you a similar experience. Please share your feedback in the comments.

What’s worrying

Recent U.S. Census Bureau data shows a sharp rise in child poverty rates, doubling to 12.4% from a historic low of 5.2% after pandemic benefits expired. The cessation of an expanded child tax credit program, introduced as part of the American Rescue Plan, has been identified as a significant factor in this surge. Efforts to revive the expanded tax credit are currently stalemated in Congress.

So what

If childhood poverty rates continue to rise, we risk condemning a significant proportion of children to growing up in conditions that significantly hinder their potentials. This could manifest in a variety of ways, from lower academic achievements and poorer health outcomes to higher rates of mental health issues and involvement in the criminal justice system. The economic implications could be severe, with less upward mobility and a workforce less prepared to meet the demands of the future economy.

Given the national political climate, federal legislation appears unlikely. However, action at the state and local might be more possible. Eighteen states have now adopted a version of the child tax credit or made other revisions to their tax codes aimed at reducing childhood poverty, and there are ongoing experiments across the country related to universal basic income and other forms of wealth redistribution.

Food for thought

• How might we proactively monitor changes to social policies, and prepare for their potential impact on our students and families?

• How might we play an active role in advocating for policies that directly benefit students and their families?

• How might we incorporate teaching strategies that build resilience and self-efficacy in students, especially those who may be experiencing poverty?

• How might we ensure students understand the implications of social and economic policies in their lives and communities, such as the child tax credit?

• How might we create an environment that fosters empathy and understanding among students from diverse socio-economic backgrounds?

• How might we integrate discussions about the ethics of poverty and wealth distribution into our curriculum, and what resources might we need to do this effectively?

What’s working

As weather and climate-related disasters increase in frequency and  severity, more governments and organizations are recognizing the need to invest in resilience and adaptation. FEMA recently announced that it will designate "community disaster resilience zones" to help target limited resilience funding and assistance to underserved areas facing the highest natural hazard risks. The zone designations will help FEMA and other partners direct technical and financial resources to improve disaster preparation in vulnerable communities.

So what

Historically marginalized populations, including communities of color, disabled people, low-income communities, and those experiencing homelessness, are more vulnerable to the worst effects of disasters such as hurricanes and floods. These communities have been systematically excluded or underserved by FEMA's programs,. Significantly increasing long-term investment in resilience has great potential to positively transform at-risk communities over the next decade. For schools, this could mean more funding for infrastructure upgrades to better withstand disasters. It may also provide access to planning assistance to help schools evaluate their unique risks, develop customized emergency plans, and build partnerships with local organizations.

Food for thought

• How might our schools serve as community resilience centers, providing resources or shelter during climate-related crises?

• How might we integrate resilience into our school infrastructure planning and development?

• How might we integrate lessons about extreme weather and resilience into our curriculum, making them relevant to students' lives and our community?

• How might we incorporate socio-emotional learning and resilience-building strategies into our curriculum to help students cope with the emotional impacts of extreme weather events?

• What support systems do we have in place for students who have experienced trauma due to extreme weather events? How might we improve these systems?

What’s hopeful

In August, the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child introduced General Comment No. 26, affirming children's right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, and calling for urgent government action in response to the climate emergency, biodiversity collapse, and pervasive pollution. This guidance not only emphasizes the responsibility of states to protect children from immediate harm but also holds them accountable for foreseeable future violations of children's rights due to present action or inaction.At about the same time, District Court judge Kathy Seeley ruled that Montana's policy of supporting fossil fuels, without considering the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions, was unconstitutional. This decision, championed by 16 youth plaintiffs who testified about the personal and environmental impacts of climate change, not only establishes legal protection against climate change harms but also sets a potential precedent for future similar lawsuits in the United States and possibly worldwide.

Both events signify an emerging global trend of recognizing and addressing the rights of future generations. 

So what

Over the next twelve years, we could see a growing number of lawsuits led by youth plaintiffs worldwide, setting legal precedents that mandate greater action on climate change, pollution control, and biodiversity conservation. Governments may be propelled to phase out fossil fuels more rapidly and invest more significantly in renewable energy sources.

As the rights of future generations become more legally enforceable and as the urgency of the climate crisis becomes more apparent to older generations, younger people, who are often at the forefront of advocating for these changes, might gain more social and political influence.  This could also lead to increased intergenerational understanding and collaboration.

However, potential tensions could also arise. As policies shift towards more sustainable practices, industries reliant on fossil fuels—often where older generations have spent their careers—may face decline. This could cause economic uncertainty for these individuals and potentially generate resentment towards the perceived instigators of change.

Food for thought

• How might we foster intergenerational understanding and empathy and encourage collaboration between students and older community members?

• How might we prepare students for the potential economic shifts that may arise from transitioning to more sustainable practices?

• What skills and knowledge will students need to navigate and influence the social, political, and economic changes associated with increased climate action?

• How might we engage with parents and the wider community  to build understanding and support around issues of intergenerational justice?

• How might we integrate real-world problem-solving into our curriculum to allow students to actively engage with the issues most relevant to their futures?

• How might we nurture student agency and confidence in advocating for their futures?

Generative AI Disclosure

For this issue we created a bot in Poe to help us think each signal. We prompted this bot, which we called MySignalAnalyzer, to review the work of accomplished futurists like Leah Zaidi, Maree Conway, Wendy Schultz, Bob Johansen, Frank W. Spencer and Sohail Inayatullah, and use what it learned to help us explore how each signal reflects current trends, and the possible implications of the signal for the next twelve years. This dialogue sharpened our thinking and enabled us to create a draft. We then asked Claude AI - also accessed through Poe - to acrt as an editor and provide feedback so that we could revise.