Some futures are timeless

Like many of you, we have been grappling with the realities and implication of the war in Gaza and growing numbers of protests on college - and even high school -  campuses across the United States and around the world. Headlines speak of walk outs, camp-outs and counter-protests; of police violence, of rising numbers of anti-Semitic and Islamophobic attacks, and a failure of leadership.

We can easily read these headlines and conclude that the Israeli-Hamas conflict has become a powerful accelerant exposing and widening existing fissures in American society around issues of identity, nationalism, and tolerance. As the human toll mounts in Gaza, domestic extremists on multiple sides seem emboldened to act out grievances and ideologies.

In a recent report on the future of children, the Institute for the Future suggests that one of the key forces shaping the future is “systemic othering,” the processes of exclusion, marginalization, and inequality that shape our communities.

We examined recent events like campus protests, mob violence, and hate crime spikes through the lens of systemic othering. This revealed that many of these incidents seem to be driven by conflicting narratives and worldviews that intentionally portray entire groups as fundamentally different or threatening based on their ethnicity, religion, nationality, or ideology.

Advanced communications technologies will likely accelerate these dynamics by creating insular echo chambers and highlighting divisive content that pits groups against each other. Looking ahead, the continued proliferation of AI capabilities like deepfakes, microtargeting, and autonomous cyberwarfare could create even more potent engines for crafting hyper-customized realities and narratives that threaten to fundamentally reorganize society into discrete, mutually hostile spheres divided by technology-turbo-charged disinformation and intolerance.

Yes, but

Smaller headlines point out moments of compromise, dialogue, and potentially powerful countertrends to some of the concerning patterns around escalating societal divisions, normalization of violence, and forces of "othering" that the previous signals pointed toward.

At Rutgers, student protesters and administrators were committed to avoiding violence, and both sides said, “de-escalation was a central part of their negotiation strategy.” As a result, they reached a peaceful resolution and one student organizer said, “I feel like we are being heard and recognized. After the past two semesters we’ve had, this is the first time where there is a conversation, an active conversation . . .”

In Jerusalem, the Hand in Hand school is one of only six mixed Jewish and Arab schools in Israel. Students learn both Arabic and Hebrew; history is co-taught by Jewish and Palestinian teachers; and despite the Israel-Hamas conflict, the school cultivates an environment where students deeply listen to each other's perspectives, acknowledge different histories and sufferings, and develop the skills to have difficult conversations about controversial topics.

Recent research suggests that after hitting a low point around 2009, self-reported empathy levels among U.S. college students have risen back to levels on par with empathy highs in the 1970s. While the causes are not clear, the researchers posit that collective hardships like the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic may have created shared experiences that increased compassion. If this trend continues, it raises the possibility of a future where societal polarization does not inevitably accelerate in a vicious cycle. New generations rejecting dehumanization could hypothetically renew societal resilience.

It is likely that a large segment – the majority even - of those protesting could be driven by a sincere empathy toward the civilians suffering because of the Israeli-Hamas conflict. An ethos of heightened compassion cultivated by experiences like COVID could be channeling into solidarity with those enduring oppression, displacement, and disproportionate casualties - whether Palestinian, Israeli or any other groups caught in the crossfires of escalating violence.

If that's the case, the resurgence of empathy might not be an abstract value shift, but a force animating real-world social movements and activism.

We can imagine heightened compassion could exacerbate polarization in the near-term by inflaming narratives on all sides about whose suffering deserves more attention and action. Over a longer time horizon, however, a world where more people develop sincere empathy could eventually erode the mental boundaries that allow humans to systematically "other" whole populations.

So what might it mean for the future?

We've examined a constellation of signals that point toward deeply concerning societal forces and dynamics escalating:

• Increased political violence, militancy, and normalization of hate/extremism across demographic lines

• Erosion of democratic norms, civil liberties, and institutional credibility

• Fracturing of shared truth and proliferation of dehumanizing "othering" narratives

• Hardening of tribal identities amplified by technological echo chambers

However, we've also surfaced countervailing signals suggesting the capacity for dialogue, compromise, and empathy.

Synthesizing these signals, we could characterize the current landscape as a turbulent "empathy struggle" - with powerful societal forces of systemic othering and dehumanization clashing against awakenings of compassion that could expand our circle of cooperation.

This struggle could play out in many ways, but here are two possible divergent pathways

• Dehumanization Prevails - The tendency to view others as fundamentally different or inhuman becomes more deeply rooted in societies and institutions. New technologies make this "us vs. them" tribalism even worse. More diversity leads to cycles of violence between extreme groups fighting for dominance over the "others." Any newfound feelings of compassion get overpowered and silenced.

• A Compassionate Transformation - Young people develop a widespread rejection of dehumanization and insist on accountability for violations of human rights. At first, this leads to more visible protests and societal tensions as injustices can no longer be ignored. However, this upheaval creates pressure that ultimately forces positive changes and new frameworks for resolving conflicts. These new approaches are based on the understanding that despite our differences, we all share a common human identity deserving of dignity.

The trajectory where "Dehumanization Prevails" could arise from a cyclical process driven by two main factors:

• A downward spiral of people having less and less empathy and compassion for one another. As societies become more insular, perspectives narrow, making it easier to view others as fundamentally different or less human.

• The rise of technologies and business models that reinforce and profit from sowing divisive stories that provoke conflicts between groups. These technologies get very effective at clustering people into segregated "us vs them" identity spaces that become impenetrable echo chambers.

As these two factors feed each other a self-perpetuating cycle could emerges where dehumanizing perspectives and realities get deeply entrenched across societies and institutions.

Conversely, the "Compassionate Transformation" path could arise from two key drivers:

• The resurgence of empathy takes hold and spreads as young people challenge each other and their elders to rediscover their capacity to deeply understand others' perspectives and shared humanity.

• New technological tools emerge that are purposefully engineered to translate diversity into mutual understanding.

These two factors could create a virtuous loop that leads to a richly diverse yet cohesive global culture.

Of course, plenty of nuanced scenarios exist between those contrasting possibilities. We can imagine a future where some regions or communities develop reinforcing patterns of mutual understanding and a culture that values diversity, while others remain mired in segregated silos. We can also imagine a future where empathy takes root in some sectors and institutions, while "othering" persists in others. Both paths produce a mosaic future with pockets of cohesion amidst division.

A timeless dynamic

Every generation grapples with this push-and-pull of "othering" and empathy. The specific contexts, oppressor-oppressed dynamics, and catalyzing forces may change - but the fundamental struggle between isolating and dehumanizing attitudes and the liberating power of connection and understanding endures as an eternal human drama.

In other words, to paraphrase futurist David Mattin, the world may be new, but we humans are the same. Mattin's premise gets at a profound truth - that as dramatically as material, technological, and social contexts evolve around us, human nature remains largely constant. Our capacity for hatred and violence, but also our profound potential for expansive empathy endures as indelible parts of us.

This perspective reveals a realistic optimism - that while the "empathy vs othering" tensions we see today play out with potentially civilization-defining stakes for today's youth, it is also a dynamic that every era's people have had to navigate in their own way.  “Our time,” observed Annie Dillard, “is an ordinary twist of an improbable yarn.”

In other words, these are age-old human patterns playing out again, just in new modern forms. However, we can't be complacent.  The details of how it all unfolds this time are still up for grabs based on the actions we take. Will we reinforce divides or work to bridge them? The choices we make now can have massive consequences for the people who alive today and for future generations.

Through this framing, the role of education becomes one of equipping each new generation with the understanding, skills, and fortitude to negotiate their time's manifestation of the very human struggle between insularity and solidarity, hatred and compassion, othering and inclusion.

Critically, it implies teaching methods can't be faddish or focus only on the surface-level specifics of any one period's flashpoints. They must tap into the fundamental aspects of human nature - developing young people's awareness of their own participation in identity-making and mythological narratives. It's not just about current events, but ancestral human dramas.

Ultimately, by situating today's signals in the context of persisting human nature, we may find more profound continuity between the ways previous generations navigated this elemental tension and how we might help young people grapple with the most essential of human struggle: who we define as "us" and who we see as "them."

Food for thought

• How might we help students develop sincere empathy and the emotional resilience to resist societal forces of division, polarization, and dehumanization that technology can amplify?

• How might we validate diverse perspectives on injustice through a universal lens of shared human dignity, without inflaming insular us-vs-them mindsets?

• How might we teach critical thinking skills to untangle the complex root causes behind conflicts, so students can wrestle with clashing moral claims in a nuanced, ethical manner?

• How might we design immersive cross-cultural experiences that rebuild an authentic sense of our common humanity despite surface differences?

• How might civic education evolve to help students develop ethical integrity, social-emotional resilience, and a sense of shared human dignity across boundaries?

• How might we develop new approaches to digital/media literacy and "digital citizenship" as the online world becomes the primary arena shaping formative social experiences?

• How might schools authentically foster a sense of shared humanity and the potential for personal growth and understanding beyond our differences?