Heat, Fire, and Water: School Days 2036

What’s been happening

Over the past few weeks, three stories captured our attention and led us to wonder about how new, extreme weather patterns will reshape schools and learning over the next decade.

• In early June, rising heat in several U.S. cities, including Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Grand Rapids in Michigan, led to the closure of schools due to safety concerns and inadequate air conditioning.

• A week later, smoke from 400 early season forest fires, stretching from British Columbia to Quebec, significantly impacted the U.S. East Coast and Midwest, causing a haze that led to air quality so hazardous that some schools in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania closed or cancelled outdoor activities like recess and sports.

• And a week after that, in England, a heatwave and a burst water main led to water shortages that forced a range of primary and secondary schools to close.

Some context

• The U.S. Government Accountability Office, in a 2020 report, estimated that about 41% of school districts needed to upgrade or replace heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems in at least half of their schools.

•  A 2019 study indicated that climate change and population growth could lead to water shortages in some regions of the U.S., notably the central and southern Great Plains, the Southwest and central Rocky Mountain States, and California, and some areas in the South (especially Florida) and Midwest.

• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recently warned of record-breaking global temperatures over the next five years. The rise is attributed to greenhouse gas emissions and the natural occurrence of the El Niño event. There is a 66% likelihood that the global temperature will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year between 2023 and 2027. There is also a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years, as well as the five-year period, will be the warmest on record.

• Research indicates that both increased temperatures and air pollution negatively affect students' cognitive function and learning outcomes.

A possible future

It is a scorching April 19th, 2036, in Grand Rapids, Michigan. The thermometer reads a blistering 101°F. It might seem an impossible day to focus on learning, but that’s not the case for twelve-year-old Lila and her fellow students. They’re fully immersed in an interactive exploration of water conservation. You might be picturing them in a traditional school building, with whiteboard-scribbled lessons and desks lined up in rows. However, they don’t attend a conventional school. Instead, they are in their backyard Learning Pod.

Back in 2025, responding to intensifying heat waves and fluctuating air quality, a team of architects, educators, and technologists envisioned the Learning Pod - a self-sustaining, modular structure with advanced climate control and air filters, powered by renewable energy. Initially, these Pods were created for the desert southwest. However, as water scarcity, higher temperatures, and extreme weather events spread, parents and towns across the country have turned to them, supported by the universal learning voucher program Congress passed in 2030.

Lila’s Pod is in her backyard, where she hosts four other students from her neighborhood. The Pod constantly monitors and regulates its environment, ensuring that Lila and her podmates have a haven for learning, no matter the conditions outside. The Pod’s AI anticipates extreme heat and smoke days and adjusts their learning plan accordingly, scheduling breaks during cooler times during the day and outdoor explorations when the air quality is safe.

The AI also personalizes lessons, adapting them to each student’s learning style and pace. They can connect with learning coaches, experts, and other students remotely, no matter where they are located. They enjoy learning with each other, and appreciate the rich learning opportunities their Learning Pod provides.

Lila sometimes wonders what it would have been like to learn in schools like her parents did. Lila’s mom loved school, and often worries aloud about the things Lila and her friends don’t get to experience. Some of the other parents hated school, and say that the Pods are so much better than sitting in classrooms and doing assignments that meant nothing to them.

Lila doesn’t know who’s right, but for her the question seems pointless, as she can’t imagine trying to learn in one of the few schools still open in Grand Rapids, which seem to be closed more and more often because of the heat or poor air quality. Most often she wonders what kind of future she and her friends have, and if they will have the skills and resources they will need to face it.

Food for Thought

• What infrastructure will schools need to ensure that all children, regardless of socioeconomic status are safe and able to learn effectively in a future marked by more extreme weather events like drought, heat waves, wildfires, storms, and floods?

• How might a future with more extreme weather events affect the traditional school calendar and day?

• How might curriculum evolve to better educate students on understanding environmental crises, resource scarcity, and opportunities to adapt or grow in a climate-different future?

• What role might teachers play as technologies like AI become more useful and prevalent in education?

• What roles could schools play in mitigating the impacts of climate change on our communities?

Help us learn

Please share your thoughts, questions, experiences worries and hopes by commenting below. We want to learn from and with you as we explore possible futures and their implications for education today.

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Generative AI Disclosure

We collaborated with ChatGPT to generate an initial version of the future scenario, which we then revised. We used Bing Image creator to generate the image.