Homeowner’s Insurance, Vicious Cycles, and the Future of Schools

With this edition of Learning Futures, we are trying out a new format: a deep-ish dive into one signal and its implications for education over the next ten years, followed by short descriptions of a few of the other signals that have caught our attention recently. Why the change? This newsletter is still young, not even a half-year old, and we are still figuring things out. We want to provide you useful insights about the futures we might inhabit. We also know how busy you are, and don’t want to overwhelm you with overly long articles that swing you from one future to another. So we are looking for that happy medium and think that maybe a digestible, usefully thought-provoking exploration of one signal, followed by a few snacks that whet your appetite for more might be the right menu. We would love to hear your thoughts about the format and depth of content, or any other ideas on how we can be more helpful. Please share in the comments or send us an email. In the meantime, on to this week’s futures: a look into why we might want to be paying more attention to news from the world of property insurance, even if you don’t live in California and Florida. Plus some news about robots; GenZ location tracking apps and GenZ activism; and an Octavia Butler inspired initiative in Sonoma County.

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The climate insurance bubble

The Texas Tribune recently reported that across the state property insurance rates “have increased 22% on average so far in 2023, twice the national rate” and that “more billion-dollar disasters have occurred in Texas this year than any other year on record.” This is a symptom of a national issue we’ve been following this year: what Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications at First Street Foundation, calls a "climate insurance bubble.” In a recent report on the issue First Street concludes that 39 million homes across the nation could lose insurance because of growing risks related to wildfire, flooding, and wind.

In recent years, severe weather events have become more common and destructive, something insurance companies, which exist to manage risk, are increasingly unable to ignore. As a result, insurers are either hiking rates or strategically withdrawing from areas prone to severe weather events, pushing homeowners into public options like Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corporation and California’s Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) Plan. In Florida, for example, Citizens is now the largest and fastest-growing insurer in the state.

So What

Picture this: By 2036 private insurers, wary of escalating climate risks, have withdrawn from a growing number of vulnerable regions. This triggers a sequence of events: Property values plummet, eroding the local tax base that underpins public services. Those who have the means to relocate do so, leaving behind a dwindling and financially strained community.

States may step in to fill the insurance void, but this merely shifts the financial burden onto the residents. If extreme climate events persist, these state-run insurance options could be overwhelmed, leading to financial instability, and triggering large-scale migration.

from Andrew Dressler - Climate change and insurance: The alarm bell we can't afford to ignore

This creates a precarious situation for public education. With property values and tax bases shrinking, school funding—often heavily reliant on property taxes—takes a hit. This could lead to larger class sizes, fewer resources, and a drop in education quality. The exit of wealthier residents, who often contribute a significant share of local tax revenues, compounds the problem.

Moreover, the ability of local governments and school boards to issue bonds—a common way to fund large-scale projects—may be compromised. With reduced faith in the economic health of these communities, potential investors may deem the bonds too risky, making it difficult for these entities to raise funds for building or improving schools.

Safer areas may see an influx of newcomers, leading to overcrowded schools and strained resources. While this could enhance diversity, it also presents challenges, especially if newcomers are primarily from underfunded schools and struggle to adapt.

Finally, the psychological toll on students, families, and teachers can't be overlooked. Displacement, the looming threat of climate change, and financial insecurity can lead to heightened stress and anxiety, impacting learning, teaching, and mental health. Schools would need to provide increased psychological support—yet another demand on already strained resources.

Food for Thought

This potential future is sobering, indeed. Yet, by acknowledging these possibilities now, we can start crafting strategies and interventions that could help to mitigate these impacts. Here are some questions K-12 educators might consider to help think strategically about these potential future dynamics:

Questions for All K-12 Educators

• To what degree is our school community at risk of insurers fleeing and the potential collapse of the local tax base?

• How might we modify our curriculum to better equip our students for the socio-economic consequences of climate change, including fostering skills such as resilience and adaptability?

• What kind of supportive measures can be put in place to help students and staff who might be dealing with increased levels of anxiety or stress because of climate change concerns?

• In a scenario of potential teacher shortages and hiring freezes, how can we create a supportive and attractive work environment for our teaching staff?

• How might we advocate for education funding and strive to preserve the quality of education in a future marked by declines in property tax revenues and possible state budget cuts?

• How might we leverage technology to create more resilient educational environments, mitigate risks, and ensure continuity of learning in the face of uncertainties brought on by an escalating insurance crisis?

Questions for Educators in At-risk Regions

• How might we understand and prepare for the specific climate risks our community faces, and how might this influence our educational strategies, infrastructure planning, and emergency preparedness?

• What steps can we take now to secure funding through bonds or other financial means for future infrastructure needs related to extreme weather events?

• How might we recognize and prepare for the signals of increased migration from our district due to climate change, and manage the potential outflux?

Questions for Educators in Safer Regions

• How likely is it that our community will become a landing place for families leaving more at-risk regions? What measures and resources would we need to support new students and families and maintain the quality of the education we provide?

• What steps can we take now to secure funding through bonds or other financial means for infrastructure needs related to an influx of students from more at-risk areas?

Quick Snacks to Inspire Futures Thinking

In Robot News

Sweetgreen, a salad chain, has started using a proprietary robot to automate food preparation at one of its "Infinite Kitchen" restaurants, aiming to reduce customer wait times and labor costs. Better Days, which operates takeout only restaurants, runs a fully automated ghost kitchen in Queens that has delivered thousands of meals. And NVIDIA Research has developed an artificial intelligence (AI) agent called Eureka that is better than human-written programs at teaching robots complex tasks, including pen-spinning tricks and opening drawers.

These signals highlight the increasing capabilities of AI and the prospect of robots taking on a wider array of tasks in various industries. One question: How might we integrate learning experiences into our curriculum that equip students with the skills required to thrive in an increasingly automated and AI-driven world, while also fostering uniquely human skills that machines cannot replicate?

Not A Rebel, With Cause

Persistent news about wars, mass shootings, the pandemic, political turmoil, and economic instability has heightened anxiety among Gen Z (ages 11 to 26), leading them to increasingly use family location-sharing apps like Life360 for added security. As Emery Littig, a 16-year-old high-school junior, puts it, "If something happened to me, I think it would be useful for my parents to know my last location.

The rise in the use of location-sharing apps among Gen Z suggests a shift in the traditional dynamics of adolescence. Instead of independence, this generation is seeking safety and reassurance in an increasingly unpredictable world, often through closer connections with parents or guardians.

How can we, as educators, adapt our understanding of adolescent development in light of changing dynamics between Gen Z and their parents, and how can we leverage this understanding to create a more supportive and secure learning environment?

Rebels, With Cause

The Boulder Valley School District Board of Trustees unanimously passed a student-drafted Green New Deal resolution. This marks the first win for the Sunrise Movement’s nationwide Green New Deal for Schools campaign, which has seen students nationwide rallying for climate action, descending on politician's offices to demand climate action, testifying at school board meetings, and organizing day-long trainings. In Boulder, students spoke at Board meetings, rallied support across the community, and led a petition-campaign.

Students rally at national conference this summer in Illinois where they learned about organizing climate action campaigns in their school district. Six students from Boulder attended. Photo by Heather Chen 

The successful campaign in Boulder reflects a growing trend of youth-led activism, particularly around climate change, and their increasing influence in policy-making, as more adults invite young people to participate in collaborative processes. As the generation that will be most impacted by climate change, Gen Z is not waiting for adults to act, but are stepping forward to demand and create change themselves.

The unanimous passing of a student-drafted Green New Deal resolution in a school district as large as Boulder's shows that educational institutions are starting to listen and react to these demands.

As educators, how might we create more opportunities for students to engage in activism and policymaking within our schools and communities?

Here’s to you, Octavia

Pandora Thomas has founded EARTHseed Farm in Sonoma County, California, a project inspired by novelist Octavia Butler that synthesizes African American heritage with principles of mutual aid and community resilience. The farm functions as an educational non-profit, fostering sustainable land management practices and permaculture, grounded in black history and culture.

This signal aligns with several broader societal and environmental trends:

Firstly, it is part of a broader movement towards sustainable and regenerative agriculture, focusing on practices that enhance ecosystem resilience, improve soil health, and reduce carbon emissions.

Secondly, it reflects the emergence of Afrofuturism, where the teachings and philosophies of African American thinkers and cultural figures, such as Octavia Butler, are being increasingly recognized as transformative tools in envisioning and shaping future societies. This is part of a larger societal shift towards acknowledging and valuing the contributions of diverse cultures and perspectives, especially in the context of addressing contemporary challenges.

Lastly, the emphasis on community resilience and mutual aid aligns with a larger trend of communities organizing themselves to address shared challenges, particularly in the face of crises such as climate change, economic instability, and social inequality. This trend is increasingly important in a world where traditional forms of governance and social organization are often seen as inadequate to address these complex, systemic issues.How might we take inspiration from Octavia Butler's blending of science, social awareness, and fiction to encourage interdisciplinary learning that combines scientific knowledge with social, cultural, and ethical considerations to prepare students for a future characterized by complex challenges like climate change?

Generative AI Disclosure and Reflections

For this issue we worked with our signal analzyer bot to explore several stories about how insurers are responding to extreme weather. This process was very much a dialogue, as we worked to think through the implications of the vicious cycle Andrew Dressler mapped. We continue to find this bot a helpful collaborator, as we have prompted it to think a bit like some of our favorite futurists. Our new editor bot isn’t quite as helpful yet, but it does help us step back to see drafts with fresh eyes, and we will keep working to improve the prompt and so help it help us more effectively.