Into the "Great Unbundling"

In this edition we explore the futures of decentralized and personalized learning.

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What’s been happening

This fall, Education Next published an article describing and analyzing what it calls the “Great Unbundling” of schooling. This shift, accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic and the parents' rights movement, sees families choosing educational experiences from various providers, both traditional and non-traditional, that align with their specific values and needs.

We’ve been tracking signs of this shift in a variety of places over the last few years. State legislators have increasingly focused on "unbundled" choice legislation like Education Savings Accounts (ESAs). ESAs provide parents a flexible annual spending amount which they can use to customize their children’s educational experiences. Currently, thirteen ESA programs exist and over the last year fifty-one more were proposed.  The number of families opting into ESAs has doubled over the last year.

We are also seeing more families opt for “microschools” or learning pods, which now serve an estimated 1.1 to 2.2 million students a year. Still more are choosing to homeschool, a choice which doubled between the start of the pandemic in March 2020 and the fall of that year.

While the pandemic might have catalyzed these choices, many families explain that other factors drove their decision making, among the most important being the desire for their children’s education to reflect their family’s culture and values.  

Given the prominence of groups like Mom’s for Liberty and attacks on “woke” public schools in most news stories about the current school choice movement, it might be reasonable to assume that the “Great Unbundling” is largely a white and politically conservative phenomena. However, it appears to be happening across a wide range of racial, ethnic, and political groups.

 In 2020, the number of Black families choosing to homeschool increased fivefold, and the number of Hispanic homeschool families doubled. In 2021 about 20,000 students opted not to attend traditional public schools in St. Paul, Minnesota, which is the most diverse district in the state. Most of these students chose charter schools that cater to their ethnic or cultural heritage.

These choices, while still far from mainstream, seem to be gaining momentum as new funders, networks, and platforms emerge to support alternatives to traditional public education. And this September, the Harvard Kennedy School hosted a two-day conference dedicated to exploring the path toward making alternative school models mainstream.

Some Context

The Great Unbundling aligns with several broader societal trends:

Yes, but . . .

Many see traditional public schooling, despite its challenges, as crucial for ensuring equal educational opportunities for all students, regardless of their socioeconomic status. Many believe the unbundling of education risks exacerbating educational disparities, because unbundled education often requires additional investments, both financial and in parents' time and skills. Families with fewer resources might struggle to provide the same investments as those with more resources, leading to widening achievement and opportunity gaps.

Furthermore, the decentralization and personalization associated with unbundled education can potentially lead to social fragmentation. Public schools provide a common setting where students from diverse backgrounds can learn together, fostering social cohesion and mutual understanding. When students are educated in separate, personalized environments, opportunities for social interaction and the development of shared values can be reduced. This could lead to a society with less binding it together.

The role of teachers and their professional expertise is another major area of concern. While AI and other technological advancements can aid in personalizing education, they cannot yet fully replace the nuanced understanding and human connection that professional educators offer. Without sufficient oversight and standards, the quality of education could vary significantly, leading to inconsistent educational outcomes.

So what . . .

As we consider the implications of the Great Unbundling between now and 2036, several interrelated and sometimes contradictory possibilities seem plausible:

  • Emergence of "Education Deserts": Just as we talk about "food deserts" today, the unbundling of education could lead to "education deserts" - areas where quality learning resources and experiences are scarce or inaccessible, especially for low-income families. This could be particularly acute in rural or underprivileged urban areas.

  • Rise of AI Teachers: With advancements in AI, we might see the rise of AI "teachers" capable of providing highly personalized instruction. This could potentially reduce the need for human teachers, devalue the profession, and exacerbate the teacher shortage. But it could also raise serious questions about the loss of human connection and guidance in education. The role of teachers could shift significantly. We might see a greater focus on mentorship and guidance, rather than traditional instruction.

  • Emergence of "Learning Economies": As education becomes more consumer-driven, we might see the emergence of "learning economies" where resources, platforms, and experiences related to learning become major economic drivers and brands compete for learners. This could lead to a hyper-competitive marketplace where marketing becomes as important as educational quality.

  • Education as a Lifelong, On-Demand Service: With the rise of AI, VR, AR, and other technological advancements, education could become an on-demand service that people engage with throughout their lives, not just during their school years. People might weave in and out of education and work throughout their lives, leading to a more fluid conception of career and life stages.

  • Social Dis-cohesion: As education becomes more decentralized and personalized, we might see a decrease in shared experiences among students. There could also a rise in educational experiences that cater to specific political or ideological beliefs. This could potentially lead to societal fragmentation, with less common ground among individuals who have had very different educational experiences.

  • Rise of Global "Education Nomads": With the increase in remote and digital learning options, we could see the rise of "education nomads" - learners who travel the world while receiving their education digitally, leading to a truly global classroom experience.  If education becomes more global and less tied to local communities or nations, our notions of community and citizenship could evolve. Learners might identify more as global citizens, leading to shifts in political engagement, community involvement, and societal norms.

  • Transforming Social Structures: As education personalizes and de-institutionalizes, traditional educational rites of passage may morph or wane, replaced by new milestones tied to personalized learning achievements or virtual community participation. Concepts like "gap year" or "alumni" may also evolve or become obsolete in a world with no set educational timeline. These changes could lead to a more individualistic, less cohesive society. Or they might also foster a society where diversity of thought and experience is valued.

Three possible futures

As we look towards the future of education in 2036, we find ourselves facing multiple uncertainties. The path forward is not linear but a complex web of possibilities. Below, we sketch out three distinct scenarios: AI Lifelong Companions, Global Learning Cloud, and Education Marketplaces and Thought Tribes.

These scenarios are not discrete, isolated futures but intertwined possibilities that could evolve and interact in complex ways. For instance, the rise of AI Lifelong Companions could feed into the development of the Global Learning Cloud, with AI tutors utilizing this global resource to personalize education further. Simultaneously, the evolution of Education Marketplaces could lead to an increased prevalence of Thought Tribes, affecting the social dynamics within the Global Learning Cloud.

Moreover, these scenarios could unfold in parallel, creating a mosaic of educational landscapes across different regions and societies. For example, affluent societies might see a synergy of all three scenarios, with AI Lifelong Companions guiding learners through a variety of educational experiences in the Global Learning Cloud and various Education Marketplaces. In contrast, areas with a significant digital divide might experience a different mix of these scenarios, or even an entirely different future.

As we describe into each scenario, consider not just their individual implications, but also the potential interplay between them, and how they might collectively shape the future of education.

Scenario 1: "AI Lifelong Companions"

In this future, the Great Unbundling leads to the development of AI "Lifelong Companions" that serve as personal tutors. These AI Companions adapt and grow with their learners from childhood through adulthood, making learning a truly lifelong endeavor. Physical schools have been replaced by community learning hubs where human mentors foster social interaction, creativity, and emotional intelligence. These educators, however, are experiencing an existential crisis, as their roles become less certain, and they struggle to maintain the human essence in education. Moreover, the digital divide has never been starker, with underprivileged students left behind in this AI-dominated landscape.

Scenario 2: "Global Learning Cloud"

The Great Unbundling has led to a single, global "Learning Cloud" that students of any age can access from anywhere. The concept of local schools has vanished, replaced by global virtual classrooms where students from different cultures interact and learn from each other. However, the dream of 'learning anywhere, anytime' is not a reality for everyone. While most students in developed nations enjoy reliable high-speed Internet access and advanced devices, many in developing nations struggle with limited infrastructure, low-quality Internet connectivity, and lack of advanced devices. In addition, the Learning Cloud, dominated by English and other languages primarily spoken in developed nations, poses cultural and linguistic barriers for many. Moreover, local, physical educational institutions, once the heart of communities, are now mere relics, leading to weakened community ties.

Scenario 3: "Education Marketplaces and Thought Tribes"

In this scenario, the Great Unbundling has transformed education into a marketplace with countless providers, each offering specialized learning experiences for learnings at all stages of life. Parents and students pick and choose these experiences like products in a store, leading to an extremely personalized but disjointed education. The shared educational experience has vanished, replaced by "thought tribes" of people with similar educational backgrounds. These tribes have their own distinct worldviews, leading to a society that is more diverse but also more polarized and fragmented.

Food for Thought

As we navigate the complex dynamics contributing to the 'Great Unbundling' in education, it's crucial we engage in thoughtful dialogue about their potential impacts and implications. The following questions aim to help us explore these dynamics – their opportunities, challenges, and possible unforeseen consequences – and to consider how we might prepare ourselves and our students for a future in which education could be far more personalized and less centralized than we've known.

  • How can we modify our teaching methods to complement AI companions effectively, while preserving the irreplaceable human touch in education?

  • What proactive steps can we take to ensure equal access to emerging educational opportunities, particularly those leveraging advanced technologies, for all students regardless of socio-economic backgrounds or geographical locations?

  • How might we cultivate a sense of community and shared experience in an increasingly personalized educational landscape?

  • How can we equip our students with the skills and understanding necessary to navigate a world filled with "thought tribes" having distinct worldviews?

  • How can we effectively navigate and evaluate burgeoning "learning marketplaces" to guide students in making informed and beneficial choices?

  • How might we establish meaningful rites of passage in a de-institutionalized education system that values individual learning pathways?

  • How can we encourage and uphold diversity of thought without inadvertently fueling polarization and divisiveness?

Generative AI Disclosure and Reflections

For this issue we continued working with our MySignalAnalyzer bot to explore how signals of the “Great Unbundling” reflect current trends, identify possible countertrends, and understand the possible implications for the world in 2036. This dialogue sharpened our thinking and expanded the possible future for us, especially when we asked the bot to explore non-obvious implications and to be deliberately provocative.

We then asked Claude 2 - accessed through Poe - to act as an editor and provide feedback so that we could revise. We trained Claude a little bit by having it review past issues of the newsletter and assess their style and tone. Then we had it suggest revisions to this issue based on what it learned. Finally, we worked with StableDiffusionXL and Bing Image creator to create images, but learned that both are bad at sliced apples (we had the idea that a sliced apple on a textbook on a teacher’s desk could evoke the unbundling). Then we tried for an image of a jigsaw puzzle school coming apart, which still stumped StableDiffusion, but Bing did okay well enough.  

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