In our last issue, we referenced a report published in April by the Institute for the Future (IFTF) in partnership with the W.K. Kellogg Foundation (WKKF). Titled "Lighting Up the Future for Children,” the report was the result of an 18-month collaboration aimed at identifying the emerging opportunities and vulnerabilities facing children, families, and communities over the next decade.

The report details some of the critical dynamics that will shape the future and describes ten possible futures for children and families. We find this analysis and the forecast usefully provocative. So useful, in fact, that we wanted to share and think about some of these forecasts with you. We hope our reflections over the new next few issues will help you imagine new possibilities for schools and education.

In this issue, we’ll introduce the three drivers of change IFTF highlights and the two critical uncertainties they use to frame their forecasts. Then, we will preview how we plan to work with the report to expand our imagination about how educators might help create a future in which all children thrive.

Extreme forces driving change

IFTF opens the report by describing three forces they believe will “play an outsize role” in shaping the future for children and families.

• Systemic othering, or treating certain groups of people as "others" or outsiders in ways that become widespread and built into the systems and structures of society, will threaten the well-being of families and communities, exacerbate inequalities, and expand political fissures

• As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes more capable, we will use it almost every part of our lives, affecting how we work, learn, communicate, care for one another, govern, and collaborate.”

• As effects of climate change play out, there will be more frequent and intense weather events like storms, floods, heatwaves, and droughts. These changes will affect the economy and society in ways that are hard to reverse and will impact some people more than others.

These forces align with the themes that have emerged over the past year in Learning Futures.  We’ve also been tracking artificial intelligence, climate change, and social cohesion – “the bonds or glue that hold communities together” and enable them to work toward shared goals. These factors, as the IFTF report observes, won’t be “factors that will shape the future, but they will play an outsize role due to the speed and breadth of their impact on all society and the lack of historical precedents to help us make sense of the resulting changes . . .”

Two critical uncertainties

Critical uncertainties are impactful drivers of change that might resolve in two opposing ways. For example we know that liberal democracies are under threat around the world by forces driving people to embrace authoritarianism. But we don’t know enough yet to be sure about how this dynamic will play. On the extremes, we could see a future where liberal democracies become more responsive and resilient OR a future where authoritarianism dominates how we govern ourselves. Practitioners of strategic foresight use critical uncertainties to develop plausible, yet divergent sets of scenarios about the future.

In the Lighting up the Future for Children report, one critical uncertainty is the time-frame that people apply in their decision-making and use to think about the impacts of their actions. In other words, will leaders and communities be thinking about the next one or two years (short-term) or over the next 10-plus years (long-term)? 

The second critical uncertainty relates to how the community participates in strategic decision-making. Here the possibilities range from "Community Involved" to "Community Determined." In a "Community Involved" future, leaders might consult with members and value their input, but they do not give them control of the process. In a “Community Determined" future, community members “envision their future, design pathways, and implement solutions that best suit their needs.” In other words, is power exercised from the top down or the bottom up?

What we find compelling is that these two uncertainties describe two interdependent, opposing values that all leaders, communities, and organizations must navigate constructively if they are to achieve sustainable positive outcomes. Barry Johnson named such interdependent, opposing pairs polarities  and developed a framework for understanding and managing them that invites us to apply both either/or AND both/and thinking - which is, in itself, a polarity.

When we apply the polarity lens to the critical uncertainties described by IFTF, we see that to ensure the well-being of children and families we need to BOTH focus on the present, addressing immediate needs and making quick changes, AND focus on the future, considering the long-term consequences of actions and planning for sustainable change.

In the same way, we can see that both top-down and bottom-up approaches have their strengths and weaknesses. Top-down approaches can provide structure, resources, and coordination, while bottom-up approaches can ensure that solutions are tailored to the community's needs and have local buy-in. The goal is to find a balance between the two, leveraging the strengths of each approach while mitigating the weaknesses.

We see these two polarities at play in schools and school districts. Most school leaders we work with recognize the need to develop long-term strategic plans, invest in teacher professional development, and adopt new technologies and pedagogical approaches to prepare students for future challenges and opportunities. However, they often find themselves giving most of their time and attention to immediate challenges such as addressing learning loss due to the pandemic, managing day-to-day operations, and ensuring student safety and well-being.

Similarly, the tensions between top-down and bottom-up processes manifest at all levels of education. Often decisions about curriculum and assessment are made at the state or district level with the goal of making sure we meet standards and ensure equal access. However, such top-down efforts meet resistance from educators who know their students and communities well and want the flexibility to respond to specific local needs.

Preparing for a turbulent future

The extreme forces identified by IFTF - systemic othering, the persistent effects of climate change, and the diffusion of AI - represent significant, transformative trends that will shape the evolving context in which children grow up. These forces are not just abstract concepts; they will have real, tangible impacts on the lives of children and families. For example, systemic othering can lead to increased discrimination and unequal access to resources, while the effects of climate change can disrupt communities and exacerbate existing inequalities.

At the same time, the critical polarities related to time horizon and community power reflect the complexity of navigating the turbulence these forces will cause. The report invites us to recognize the interdependence of the present and the future, as well as the need for both top-down and bottom-up approaches in creating positive change for children, families, and communities. How will we simultaneously address urgent, present needs while planning for and investing in long term change?  How will we empower and support the autonomy of communities while at the same time ensuring equitable access to resources and opportunities?

By combining these extreme forces and critical polarities, IFTF has created a set of ten scenarios that explore different possible futures for children and families. Each scenario represents a unique combination of the forces at play and how stakeholders choose to navigate the critical polarities. For example, one scenario “explores the tension between responding to immediate crises equitably while maintaining the resolve to profoundly remake social systems so that crises no longer hit marginalized groups hardest.” Another “conveys the constant tension between fixing failing public systems and strengthening organic, community-led systems.”

The value of these scenarios lies in their ability to help us grapple with the complexity of the challenges we face. They encourage us to consider multiple perspectives, explore unintended consequences, and identify potential trade-offs. Which is why we want to dig into these scenarios over the next several issues. By immersing ourselves in these plausible future worlds, we hope to deepen and broaden our imagination about how these dynamics might impact our communities; and about how to develop more nuanced and adaptive strategies for supporting the well-being of children. We look forward to sharing this journey with you all.